Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: Introduction of the new Forecasting and Futurism Section – helps members stay current, and facilitates professional development by providing information about and training in forecasting and futurism methods and tools.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.